我院买欣特聘副研究员在城市地理领域TOP期刊Urban Studies发表学术论文

Mai Xin has published her research outputs in Urban Studies, a top journal in urban geography.

作者简介

买欣，澳门十大正规老牌网赌特聘副研究员，香港大学城市规划与设计系城市研究方向博士。主要研究领域包括人口地理学、乡村地理学、城乡治理与中国城镇化发展。主持国家及省部级科研项目3项，近年来相关成果发表在Urban Studies, Cities, Habitat International等国内外期刊。

近日，澳门十大正规老牌网赌买欣特聘副研究员以通讯作者在城市研究领域TOP期刊Urban Studies发表题为“Patterns of onwards migration within the urban hierarchy of China: Who moves up and who moves down？”的研究论文。

（https://doi.org/10.1177/00420980221144236）

本文研究在中国城市体系中流动人口继续迁移的模式及其影响因素。基于2017中国流动人口动态调查数据，本文考察了流动人口过去的迁移经历与个体的社会经济特征如何影响其定居决策和继续迁移时的方向选择。研究发现，中国国内人口迁移的总体格局是第一次迁移向更高等级城市流动，继续迁移则向下流动，这与Ravenstein阶梯式迁移法则提出的西方国家移民通过积累资本从而实现层级跃迁的迁移规律形成鲜明对比。此外，我们发现了一种“层级跃迁效应”，即流动人口初次迁移时所跨越的城市层级越大，越有可能继续迁移，而这种效应在农村出身、受教育程度较低的中年移民身上表现得最为强烈。对于继续迁移的方向，针对人口特征和社会经济特征不同的迁移者，所得结果不一，而受教育水平和层级跃迁效应可以高度预测城市等级体系内的上下流动。本研究拓展了对流动人口多次迁移动态规律的认识，并揭示其与个体因素、城市等级体系之间的复杂联系，打破了现有研究对“返乡”、“钟摆流动”等二元迁移轨迹和规律的认识局限。

Urban Studies是城市研究领域的国际权威期刊，2021年影响因子为4.418(Q1)，5年影响因子为4.869。

This paper examines onward migration patterns and the factors that influence them in urban China. In contradiction to Ravenstein’s laws of step migration, we argue that movement up the urban hierarchy does not dominate onward migration in the Chinese context. Using the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey, we model how past migratory experiences intersect with migrants’ demographic and socioeconomic characteristics to explain the stay-versus-move decision and who moves up as well as who moves down within China’s urban hierarchy. The general pattern of China’s domestic migration is a movement up the urban hierarchy in the first migration and a movement down in onward migration. We identify a transition-levels effect whereby the larger the difference between the hukou-registered place and the first migration city in the urban hierarchy, the greater the probability of onward migration, with the effect manifesting most strongly for less-educated, mid-age (the 1970s and 1980s birth cohorts) migrants with rural origins. As to onward migration direction, mixed results were found for migrants’ demographic and socioeconomic characteristics whereas educational level and the transition-levels effect are both highly predictive of movement up and down the urban hierarchy. Our findings suggest that ‘jumping too high’ in previous migration(s) predicts a greater likelihood of moving down the urban hierarchy in response to insurmountable obstacles to settling in cities classified as large and above. Our research advances migration scholarship by considering the multipolar nature of onward migration and offering an integrated approach to analysis that foregrounds the causes and effects of multiple-step migration.

中国城市体系中流动人口初次迁移和继续迁移规律

文案 | 买欣

初审 | 袁亚娟

复审 | 陶伟

终审 | 刘云刚