特聘副研究员王宇渠在城市研究领域TOP期刊Cities发表研究成果

Yuqu Wang has published his research outputs in Cities, a top journal in urban studies

近期，我院特聘副研究员王宇渠以第一作者在城市研究领域TOP期刊Cities发表题为“Evolution and Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Global Perspective”的研究论文。Yuqu Wang, Zehong Wang, Jieyu Wang, Ming Li, Shaojian Wang, Chunshan Zhou*，Evolution and Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Global Perspective[J]. Cities.2022,130(11):31.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103907

文中通过地理探测器和相关分析方法，本文从全球角度调查新冠大流行初期演变的影响因素，并探讨不同国家的疫情应对政策和效果。研究得出三个显著发现：首先，实证结果表明，新冠肺炎大流行受到各种因素的影响，包括人口和经济参数、国际人流量、城市化比重等。其中，城市人口与确诊病例之间的相关性最强，城市成为影响新冠肺炎大流行的关键因素，高城市化水平和人口流动性增加了大规模疫情爆发的风险。其次，在控制措施中，学校关闭、国际旅行限制和公众聚集限制措施对疫情的控制效果最好。此外，不同类型的控制措施的组合在控制疫情方面更为有效，特别是以下几类控制措施组合：公共聚集限制∩学校关闭、国际旅行限制∩工作场所关闭、公共交通限制∩国际旅行限制。第三，在疫情爆发的第一个月前三周实施适当的控制措施能有效抑制疫情的发展。由于这一时期本地病例很少，控制措施效果明显。

本研究受国家社会科学基金（17BRK010）的支持。Cities是城市研究领域的权威期刊，2021年影响因子为6.077，5年影响因子为6.788，全球排名：2/42（Urban Studies）。

We investigated the factors influencing the progression of the pandemic from a global perspective by using the Geodetector and Correlation methods and explored the pandemic response policies and effects in different countries. The results yielded three notable findings. First, empirical results show the COVID-19 pandemic is influenced by various factors, including demographic and economic parameters, international travelers, urbanization ratio, urban population, etc. Among them, the correlation between urban population and confirmed cases is strongest. Cities become the key factor affecting the COVID-19 pandemic, with high urbanization levels and population mobility increases the risk of large-scale outbreaks. Second, among control measures, School-closures, International-travel-restrictions, and Public-gathering-restriction have the best control effect on the epidemic. In addition, the combination of different types of control measures is more effective in controlling the outbreak, especially for Public-gathering-restrictions ∩ School-closures, International-travel-restrictions ∩ Workplace-closures, Public-transport-restrictions ∩ International-travel-restrictions. Third, implementing appropriate control measures in the first month of an outbreak played a critical role in future pandemic trends. Since there are few local cases in this period and the control measures have an obvious effect.

Keywords：COVID-19 pandemic; Global; Influencing factors; Geodetector; Correlation analysis

文案编辑 | 王宇渠

初审 | 袁亚娟

复审 | 陶   伟

终审 | 刘云刚